Tokyo’s FX traders are scanning the airwaves for official comments as the yen slumps toward levels where the government intervened to prop it up last year.
The Japanese currency traded past the 143 per dollar level Friday, having slid almost 1% in the previous session. It has weakened to a record against the Swiss franc and is at levels last seen in 2008 against the euro.
The growing divergence between Japan’s easy monetary policy and the hawkish bent of its major counterparts continues to weigh on the yen. Officials have warned they are watching moves closely and stand ready to act, as they did late last year. Then, the yen weakening toward 146 per dollar triggered the first intervention to support the currency since 1998.
“The stark contrast between the dovish Bank of Japan and other major central banks suggests the yen looks set to fall further in the near term,” said Kristina Clifton, an economist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. “The weak yen may prompt some further verbal intervention from Japanese authorities.”
Still, so far market expectations that any verbal intervention will trigger big moves in the yen look muted. One-month implied volatility in the currency is below levels seen in the run up to actual intervention last year.
Thursday’s surge in Treasury yields after major central banks warned about the potential for more interest-rate hikes was the latest catalyst for yen weakness. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the US may need one or two more rate increases this year while the Bank of England cautioned it may have to hike again after delivering a half-point boost.
Investor buying at quarter-end and corporate hedging flows have also contributed to the yen’s slide and traders have speculated that a move to 145 per dollar would meet little pushback.
“Verbal intervention is now a real risk and when we hear it the BOJ and MOF are effectively putting yen shorts on notice that FX intervention is close at hand,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone Group. “Alternatively, the BOJ could tweak its yield-curve control policy, but this seems far less likely for now.”
--With assistance from Carter Johnson, Robert Fullem and Masaki Kondo.
(Updates with implied volatility)
