Citadel founder Ken Griffin said the Federal Reserve risks a hit to its reputation if it cuts interest rates too quickly.
“The Fed needs to have the message that they will put the inflation genie back in the bottle,” Griffin said Tuesday in a wide-ranging interview at his firm’s inaugural global macro conference in Miami. “If they cut too soon, I think they risk losing credibility around their commitment to a 2% inflation target.”
Griffin, 55, also discussed the recent volatility in the Treasury markets, with the yield on US 10-year government debt surging last month to the highest level since 2007. Treasury yields changed course abruptly on Tuesday, after an unexpected slowdown in inflation boosted bets that the Federal Reserve has finished raising rates.
The billionaire said he was surprised at the strength of Tuesday’s move, but that a yield on the 10-year Treasury of about 4.5% made sense. Fiscal policy is unlikely to tighten much next year because of the political pressure of the presidential election, Griffin said.
He also echoed earlier comments from billionaire investor Stanley Druckenmiller, who criticized US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen over what he deemed her department’s failure to capitalize on near-zero interest rates by selling more longer-term bonds.
“I actually do believe he’s right,” Griffin said, adding that the Treasury has been shortening its maturity as US debt has climbed higher. Still, he likened the criticism to crying over “spilled milk.”
Griffin expects a recession in the US in the second quarter, but its severity will depend on several factors, he said. He doesn’t foresee the Fed raising rates from here, nor does he see lawmakers cutting deficit spending ahead of next year’s election.
(Updates with recession comments in final paragraph.)
