Bond traders are again placing even odds on the prospect that the Federal Reserve’s widely expected interest-rate hike this Wednesday won’t be its last.
Rates on swap contracts tied to future Fed meetings continue to price in a quarter percentage-point increase in the central bank’s target rate at the coming meeting, with an additional 12.5 basis points of hikes factored in by year-end. That indicates a 50% likelihood of another quarter-point move.
The Fed has raised its policy rate 10 times since March 2022, most recently to 5%-5.25% in May. Its quarterly forecasts for the economy and monetary policy in June showed officials expect to raise rates twice more by year-end.
